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Original research
THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN VIETNAM: SURVEY EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONSPages 103-110 Abstract
This paper examines the impact of pandemics on macroeconomic stability in Vietnam, drawing on a survey of 569 respondents from the finance-banking, research, and business sectors. The survey is framed around three hypothetical future-pandemic scenarios (approximately equivalent to, more severe than, and much more severe than COVID-19) and uses a five-point Likert scale. The results indicate that pandemic shocks are perceived as severe and that they simultaneously weaken the main pillars of macroeconomic stability; growth and employment, as well as price stability, are viewed as the most sensitive components. In terms of transmission, disruptions in the real economy are seen as the dominant channel, followed by external shocks and fiscal pressures; the financial-credit channel stands out through rising bad-debt risk and more cautious credit supply, amplifying the shock with a lag. Regarding shock-absorbing mechanisms, healthcare capacity and social protection are considered the most important pillars, while policy delays and inconsistencies, uneven digital transformation, and fragmented communication are bottlenecks that undermine response effectiveness. Based on these findings, the paper proposes two groups of solutions focusing on prevention and response.
Keywords: Pandemic, Macroeconomic stability, Transmission channels, Resilience, Survey.
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Huyen Vu Thi Anh 
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